Does COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Bank Credit Risk?

A Panel Data Analysis

Authors

  • Ririn Riani SMART Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58968/eii.v3i1.42

Keywords:

Credit risk, Covid-19, Islamic bank, Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on banking credit risk in Indonesia, namely conventional banks and Islamic banks which are proxied through NPL and NPF variables. This study used a sample of 12 conventional commercial banks and 12 Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia. The data used is quarterly data, namely from the 1st quarter of 2017 to the 4th quarter of 2020. Furthermore, in this paper, dummy variables are used to describe the period before and after the COVID-19 pandemic that caused various declines in the economy. The method in this study uses a panel data analysis approach. The results show that COVID-19 significantly affects credit risk in the overall model and conventional bank models. Meanwhile, no correlation was found between the COVID-19 pandemic and the Islamic bank model. Furthermore, the variables found to have a significant relationship with credit risk are bank capital, total loans, and bank profitability.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abdelsalam, O., Elnahass, M., Ahmed, H., & Williams, J. (2020). Asset securitizations and bank stability: evidence from different banking systems. Global Finance Journal, 100551.

Achsani, M. N. F. F., & Kassim, S. (2021). The Determinants of Credit Risk Under Dual Banking System: Indonesian Experience Based on Bank Specific Variables. AL-MUZARA'AH, 9(2), 215-229.

Ahmed, A. (2010). Global financial crisis: an Islamic finance perspective. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management.

Aiyar, S., Bergthaler, W., Garrido, J., Ilyina, A., Jobst, A., Kang, K., . . . Moretti, M. (2015). strategy for resolving Europe's problem loans. International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Alandejani, M., & Asutay, M. (2017). Nonperforming loans in the GCC banking sectors: Does the Islamic finance matter?. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 832-854.

Aldaroso, I., Fender, I., Bryan, H., & Tarashev, N. (2020). Effects of Covid-19 on the banking sector: the market's assessment. Bank for International Settlements No 20.

Augustin, P., Sokolovski, V., Subrahmanyam, M. G., & Tomio, D. (2021). In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk. Journal of Financial Economics.

Baele, L., Farooq, M., & Ongena, S. (2014). Of religion and redemption: Evidence from default on Islamic loans. Journal of Banking & Finance, 44, 141-159.

Bala, S., & Nafis, A. (2007). Evolution of Islamic Finance: Prospect and Problems. Serdang, Malaysia: Universiti Putra Malaysia.

Baldwin, R., & Mauro, B. (2020). Economics in the time of COVID-19: A new eBook. VOX CEPR Policy Portal, 2-3.

Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data: Third Edition. England: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1996). The financial accelerator and the flight to quality. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1-15.

Boumediene, A. (2011). Is credit risk higher in Islamic banks? The Journal of Credit Risk, 7(3), 97-129.

Burton, R., Lauridsen, J., & Obel, B. (2002). Return on assets loss from situational and contingency misfits. Management Science 48(11), 1461-1485.

Cecchetti, S., & Schoenholtz, K. (2020). Contagion: Bank runs and COVID-19. Economics in the Time of COVID-19, 77.

Disemandi, Sytra H., & Ismail Shaleh, A. (2020). Banking credit restructuring policy on the impact of COVID-19 spread in Indonesia,“. Journal Inovasi Ekonomi, 5(2).

Elnahass, M., Salama, A., & Trinh, V. (2020). irm valuations and board compensation: evidence from alternative banking models. Global Finance Journal, 100553.

Goodell, J. (2020). COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research. Finance Research Letters, vol 35.

Hardianti, S., & Aziz, L. (2021). The case of COVID-19 impacts the level of non-performing loans of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia. Banks and Bank Systems, 62-68.

Hassan, M., Khan, A., & Ngow, T. (2010). Is faith‐based investing rewarding? The case for Malaysian Islamic unit trust funds. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research.

Hidayat, T., Masyita, D., Nidar, S., Febrian, E., & Ahmad, F. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 on credit and capital risk of a state-owned bank in Indonesia: A system dynamics model. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 1121-1136.

Hosen, M. N., & Muhari, S. (2019). Non-performing financing of Islamic rural bank industry in Indonesia. Banks and Bank Systems, 14(1), 20.

How, J., Karim, M., & Verhoeven, P. (2005). Islamic financing and bank risks: the case of Malaysia. Thunderbird International Business Review 47, no. 1, 75-94.

İncekara, A., & Çetinkaya, H. (2019). Liquidity risk management: A comparative analysis of panel data between Islamic and conventional banking in Turkey. Procedia Computer Science, 158, 955-963.

Kaleem, A. (2000). Modeling monetary stability under dual banking system: the case of Malaysia. International Journal of Islamic Financial Services, Vol. 2, No. 1, 21-42.

Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem, Laeven, L., & Moreno, D. (2018). Debt overhang, rollover risk, and corporate investment: Evidence from the European crisis. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Kolapo, T., Ayeni, R., & Oke, M. (2012). Credit Risk And Commercial Banks Performance In Nigeria: A Panel Model Approach. Australian journal of business and management research 2(2), 31.

Kusmayadi, D., Firmansyah, I., & Badruzaman, J. (2018). The impact of macroeconomic on nonperforming loan: comparison study at conventional and islamic banking. Iqtishadia: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam STAIN Kudus, 10(2), 59-82.

Lassoued, M. (2018). Comparative study on credit risk in Islamic banking institutions: The case of Malaysia. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 70, 267-278.

Lehner, O. (2016). Routledge handbook of social and sustainable finance. Routledge.

Mollah, S., & Zaman, M. (2015). Shari’ah supervision, corporate governance, and performance: Conventional vs. Islamic banks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 58, 418-435.

Nguyen, T., & Nguyen, V. (2020). The determinants of profitability in listed enterprises: a study from Vietnamese stock exchange. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business 7(1), 47-58.

Noreen, U. (2019). Impact of capital structure on profitability: A comparative study of Islamic and conventional banks of Pakistan. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business 6(4), 65-74.

Pappas, V., Ongena, S., Izzeldin, M., & Fuertes, A.-M. (2017). A survival analysis of Islamic and conventional banks. Journal of Financial Services Research 51, no. 2, 221-256.

Park, C.-Y., & Shin, K. (2021). COVID-19, nonperforming loans, and cross-border bank lending. Journal of Banking and Finance, 1-14.

Purwaningtyas, H., & Hartono, U. (2020). Pengaruh GDP, inflasi, kurs, CAR, FDR, financing dan bank size terhadap NPF perbankan syariah di Indonesia tahun 2014-2017. Ilmu Manajemen, 352-367.

Quanyun, S., Du, J., & Wu, Y. (2021). Bank Loans for Small Businesses in Times of COVID-19: Evidence from China. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Saif-Alyousfi, A. Y., Saha, A., & Md-Rus, R. (2018). Impact of oil and gas price shocks on the non-performing loans of banks in an oil and gas-rich economy: Evidence from Qatar. International Journal of Bank Marketing.

Song, Q., Du, J., & Wu, Y. (2021). Bank Loans for Small Businesses in Times of COVID-19: Evidence from China. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(6), 1652-1661.

Sukmana, R. (2018). Determinants of Credit and Financing Risk: Evidence of Dual Banking System in Indonesia. Journal of Islamic Financial Studies, 3(02), 98-112.

Suprayitno, E., & Hardiani, R. (2021). A spatial analysis of non-performance financing determinants in Islamic banks in Indonesia. urnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan Islam 7, no. 2, 189-205.

Swartz, N. P. (2013). Risk management in Islamic banking. African Journal of Business Management, 7(37), 3799-3809.

Viphindrartin, S., Zainuri, & Anugrah, M. (2020). How Islamic Bank Managing Risk? An Emphasis on Anticipating Financial Crisis. Journal of Islamic Economics 4(2), 208-217.

Waemustafa, W. (2013). The emergence of Islamic banking: Development, trends, and challenges. IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSRJBM) 7, no. 2, 67-71.

Waemustafa, W., & Sukri, S. (2015). Bank specific and macroeconomics dynamic determinants of credit risk in Islamic banks and conventional banks. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(2), 476-481.

Widarjono, A., & Rudatin, A. (2021). Financing diversification and Indonesian Islamic bank’s nonperforming financing. Jurnal Ekonomi and Keuangan Islam, 7(1), 45-58.

Downloads

Published

2021-06-30

How to Cite

Riani, R. (2021). Does COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Bank Credit Risk? A Panel Data Analysis. Ekonomi Islam Indonesia, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.58968/eii.v3i1.42